Macro trends are still healthy

Since march 2009 we have been witnessing the run of  a long term secular bull market. Of course it is only visible on a graph in 2018. Granted valuations are not as attractive as they used to be, however there are still very good long term growth opportunities.

What is supporting the Macro trend?

  1. The US labor market is very healthy and jobs are still growing.
  2. GDP numbers are strong & the federal reserve is tightening interest rate policy.

What is supporting the selective investor?

  1. Corporations specifically in Tech, healthcare, some financials will post strong earnings due to the 1 trillion dollar combined buybacks &  favorable corporate fiscal policy.
  2. Strong labor market will continue to support demand for those businesses.
  3. Bonds face value is still way to expensive compared with historical data, which supports higher stock valuation.

I would like to point your attention on the graph below:

If you look carefully we have been since 2013 above the 2000 & 2007 levels.

This means that from 2000 to 2013 we have witnessed a long term secular bear Market

This secular bull market might not be around 10 years old but 5.5 years old…. to be continued.

 

secular 2018

 

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